Early Warning System: Catching At-Risk Students Before They Fall

Early Identification Rate

23% 84%

+265%

Days to First Intervention

34 days 5 days

-85%

False Positive Rate

N/A 12%

New

The Problem

Students were falling through the cracks. By the time a teacher referred a student for intervention, the student had already failed a class, been absent 15+ days, or accumulated multiple behavioral incidents. The school was reactive — always catching students after they'd already fallen behind. The data to predict these outcomes existed in the system. Attendance patterns, behavioral events, and grade trends all showed warning signs weeks before a crisis. But no one was watching.

The Plan

1

Configure 3 triggers: attendance, behavior, academics

3+ absences in 10 days, 2+ behavior events in 5 days, grade below 65 in any core class. 2+ indicators = flag.

Triggers Data Wall See example

Elmer Suite → Triggers

Attendance AlertActive

3+ absences in 10 school days → notify team

Behavior AlertActive

2+ events in 5 days → notify counselor

Triggers run automatically. Staff respond when flagged.
2

Monday: Review flagged students, assign counselors

MTSS coordinator reviews. Each flagged student assigned to a counselor for same-week contact.

15 min Monday

Data Wall See example

Elmer Suite → Data Wall

StudentMetric 1Metric 2Status

Student A At Risk Watch Flagged

Student B On Track On Track ✓

Stoplight colors show who needs attention at a glance.
3

Friday: Intervention starts — flag to support in one week

Counselor check-ins Tue-Wed. Team huddle Thursday. Matched support by Friday.

Events Student Profile Groups